CFTC Sends Event Contract Swap Rules for White House Review

From exclusive events and interviews to real-time market trends, Ace Alliance brings you unbiased, well-informed, and data-driven content. Our editorial team adheres to strict editorial standards, ensuring that the information you receive is not only relevant but also trustworthy.

Built by market experts hosting events since 2023, with our first event in Riga, Latvia gathering over 300 top level iGaming industry executives, Ace Alliance is able to provide you with reliable information from direct interaction with experts and leaders in the sector.

Altay Celikkaya

Content Manager

Updated: 01/10/26

Reading Time: 3 minutes

The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission has sent two new rulemaking actions on event contracts to the White House for review, adding a new regulatory dimension to the dispute over where prediction markets sit between federal derivatives law and state gambling rules.

Records from the Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs show that both measures were received on 28 September and remain under review. One proposed rule would further define “swap” to include event contracts, while a separate interim final rule would further define the term to exclude casino-style gambling products. The full rule texts have not yet been published, meaning the filings currently indicate the CFTC’s intended regulatory direction rather than a final change in law.

CFTC rulemaking graphic featuring the US flag and White House with new event contract swap rules under review

Regulation & Compliance

Key Takeaways on the CFTC’s New Event Contract Rules

The CFTC has sent two separate swap definition measures for White House review.
One proposal would expressly include event contracts within the definition of a swap.
A second measure would exclude casino style gambling products from that definition.
The filings come days after a federal appeals court rejected Kalshi’s position that its sports event contracts fell within exclusive federal swap jurisdiction.

CFTC Moves Beyond Its Earlier Prediction Market Framework

The latest filings are more specific than the CFTC’s earlier attempt to establish a broader framework for event contracts.

In June, the agency proposed changes addressing gaming-related contracts and the public interest test under Regulation 40.11. That development was covered in Ace Alliance’s analysis of the CFTC’s proposed rules for prediction markets and sports event contracts.

The latest actions focus instead on a more fundamental legal question. They seek to clarify what qualifies as a swap under federal derivatives law.

The event contract proposal is listed under RIN 3038-AF82, while the casino-style gambling measure appears under RIN 3038-AF81 in the White House regulatory review database.

Timing Follows the Sixth Circuit Kalshi Ruling

The filings reached White House review only days after the Sixth Circuit issued a significant ruling involving Kalshi.

On 25 September, the court concluded that the sports event contracts at issue did not satisfy the Commodity Exchange Act’s definition of a swap. It also rejected the argument that federal commodities law prevented Ohio and Tennessee from applying their gambling laws.

The decision was covered in Ace Alliance’s report on the Sixth Circuit ruling involving Kalshi and state gambling laws.

Senior Circuit Judge Julia Smith Gibbons said:

It is the states, rather than the federal government, that are best suited to regulate sports betting.

The CFTC filings do not reverse that decision, and the unpublished rule texts leave open how the agency intends the new definitions to interact with ongoing litigation and state enforcement.

What the Industry Should Watch Next

For prediction market operators, state regulators and B2B partners, the next key development will be publication of the rule texts once the White House review process advances.

The move also follows recent CFTC guidance on manipulation risks in mention markets, showing that the agency is addressing both market integrity and the legal classification of event-based products.

Until the new definitions are published, the most important takeaway is that the CFTC is moving beyond general prediction market oversight and directly examining the statutory boundary between event contracts, swaps and gambling products.