Kalshi Volume Methodology Complicates Sportsbook Handle Comparisons

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Altay Celikkaya

Content Manager

Updated: 10/09/26

Reading Time: 3 minutes

Kalshi’s headline trading volume can appear to place the prediction-market exchange alongside the regulated US sports betting sector. That comparison becomes less straightforward once contract face value, execution price and exchange structure are separated.

Neither measure is automatically false. Face-value volume and money committed at execution prices answer different questions, making the distinction important for operators, regulators and investors assessing Kalshi’s scale. This distinction becomes especially important when public valuations, regulatory arguments and competitor comparisons rely on a single headline volume number.

Kalshi logo over a green background featuring trading charts and a prediction market interface.

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Key Takeaways From Kalshi’s Volume Split

Kalshi’s August face-value volume was approximately $40bn, while price-weighted activity was about $11.4bn.
Sports accounted for at least 61% of the money committed when smaller competitions were included.
Combo contracts represented close to 45% of face-value volume but around 10% of price-weighted activity.
Macroeconomic and political contracts accounted for approximately 0.6% of the price-weighted total.

Two Measures Answer Different Questions

A binary Kalshi contract generally pays $1 when an outcome occurs and zero when it does not. Face-value reporting counts each contract at $1 regardless of its trading price. A contract executed at two cents therefore contributes $1 of face-value volume, although the buyer committed only two cents.

A public Dune query using Kalshi trade reporting separates contracts by execution price and market series. Its price-weighted calculation multiplies contract quantity by execution price. The results show an average execution price of approximately 28.6 cents in August, producing a gap of about three and a half times between the two volume measures.

The difference was wider for combos. Their average execution price was approximately 6.1 cents, substantially widening the gap between face value and money committed.

Sports and Combos Reshape the Business Mix

Single-game sports markets generated approximately $5.6bn in price-weighted activity, representing almost half of Kalshi’s August total. Adding combos lifted the sports share to about 58.5%, while smaller leagues pushed it above 60%.

This concentration aligns with Kalshi’s partnerships with five MLB clubs across stadium, digital and broadcast inventory. Kalshi separately reported that trading volume in its baseball markets had increased 36-fold year on year.

Product growth is also increasing scrutiny of market design. The NFL’s concerns over manipulable prediction-market contracts focus on player availability, injuries, officiating and individual plays. These markets differ from ordinary multi-leg combinations, but the debate shows why product-level classifications matter alongside aggregate volume.

Volume Does Not Resolve the Legal Question

Kalshi’s business mix may inform the regulatory debate, but it cannot determine whether sports-event contracts are derivatives or gambling products. That question remains divided across federal courts and state authorities.

New Jersey’s request for Supreme Court review asks whether federally registered exchanges can offer sports contracts without complying with state gambling rules. The outcome could affect licensing, geolocation, consumer safeguards and market access.

The small share attributed to macroeconomic and political markets is commercially significant because these products have a clearer connection to hedging and price discovery. It does not establish the legal classification of other contracts.

Sportsbook Handle Requires a Separate Benchmark

The American Gaming Association reported that regulated US sportsbooks accepted $166.94bn in wagers during 2025 and generated $16.96bn in revenue. This provides useful market context but is not directly interchangeable with either prediction-market volume measure.

American Gaming Association President and CEO Bill Miller said:

Sports betting belongs under state and tribal regulation.

Sportsbook handle records wagers placed by customers against the operator. Kalshi instead matches participants taking opposing positions. The source table also lacks the maker-and-taker classification needed to construct a definitive sportsbook-handle equivalent.

For B2B decision-makers, the practical lesson is to demand clear labels. Face value describes contractual exposure, while price-weighted volume better approximates money committed. Neither should be presented as identical to sportsbook handle without explaining the market structure, calculation and limitations behind the comparison.