Dutch gambling industry organisations have warned that planned increases to the country’s gambling tax could significantly undermine the regulated market, reducing government revenue while accelerating the growth of illegal operators targeting Dutch players.
Trade body Vergunde Nederlandse Online Kansspelaanbieders (VNLOK) said the measure risks producing the opposite of its intended fiscal impact. According to the organisation, the policy could result in €43.5 million less tax revenue than projected while simultaneously strengthening the unlicensed gambling sector.
The warning comes as the Netherlands prepares for a staged rise in gambling tax rates, which increased from 30.5% to 34.2% in 2025 and is scheduled to reach 37.8% in 2026. Industry representatives argue that the combined effect of higher taxes and strict regulatory requirements could make licensed operators less competitive compared with offshore platforms that target Dutch players without a licence.
What the Dutch Tax Policy Means for the Gambling Market
Industry stakeholders argue that the higher tax burden, combined with stricter responsible-gambling measures and compliance obligations, is placing increasing pressure on the profitability and competitiveness of licensed operators in the Dutch market. Operators must absorb higher taxation while simultaneously investing in responsible-gambling tools, monitoring systems and regulatory reporting requirements mandated by the Netherlands’ regulated framework.
Industry representatives warn that if the cumulative financial burden becomes too large, licensed operators may struggle to offer competitive products, marketing campaigns, or player incentives compared with unlicensed offshore platforms. This dynamic could weaken the attractiveness of the regulated market and make it more difficult to keep players within the licensed ecosystem.
- State revenue risk: VNLOK estimates the tax policy could lead to €43.5 million less revenue than expected due to declining activity within the legal market.
- Illegal market growth: Higher operational costs may push players toward unlicensed operators offering fewer restrictions and more aggressive promotions.
- Competitive pressure on licensed operators: Legal companies must absorb higher tax rates while complying with strict consumer-protection rules and responsible-gambling measures.
- Policy tension: Increasing fiscal pressure could undermine the Dutch government’s long-term objective of maintaining a strong, regulated market that protects players.
According to VNLOK, the financial modelling shows that the tax increase could reduce the attractiveness of the regulated market, particularly if operators are forced to limit marketing activity, bonuses and product innovation in order to maintain profitability.
The organisation emphasised that a well-functioning regulated market requires a balance between taxation, compliance obligations and the ability of licensed operators to compete with illegal providers.
Industry Groups Call for Policy Reassessment
The Netherlands’ gambling tax increase forms part of a broader fiscal strategy aimed at increasing public revenues. However, industry stakeholders argue that the policy risks weakening the regulated sector rather than strengthening the state’s tax base.
VNLOK warned that if licensed operators become less competitive, Dutch players may increasingly migrate toward unlicensed gambling platforms that operate outside the country’s regulatory framework. Such platforms often offer fewer safeguards and fewer restrictions on bonuses or gambling limits.
According to the sector group, this shift would not only reduce tax revenues but also undermine the consumer protection goals established under the Remote Gambling Act, which came into force in 2021 to regulate the Dutch online gambling market.
The organisation has therefore called on policymakers to reconsider the planned tax trajectory and conduct a broader evaluation of the policy’s impact on the long-term sustainability of the regulated gambling market.
Enforcement and Player Protection Remain Central to Dutch Policy
The debate around gambling taxation is taking place alongside broader regulatory efforts aimed at strengthening oversight of the Dutch market.
Authorities have increasingly prioritised consumer protection, stronger supervision of licensed operators and enforcement actions against illegal gambling platforms targeting Dutch players. Recent policy discussions have emphasised the importance of tightening enforcement against unlicensed operators while simultaneously reinforcing safeguards for players within the regulated market.
These initiatives form part of a wider regulatory agenda that places greater emphasis on monitoring responsible-gambling obligations and limiting the influence of illegal operators within the Dutch market.
Industry stakeholders argue that such enforcement strategies will only be effective if the regulated market remains competitive enough to attract and retain players.
Rising Regulatory Costs Add Pressure on Licensed Operators
In addition to the upcoming tax increases, licensed operators in the Netherlands are also facing rising regulatory costs linked to expanded supervision of the gambling sector.
Authorities have introduced adjustments to licensing and supervision fees as part of broader efforts to strengthen regulatory oversight and provide additional resources for monitoring the market.
For operators, the combined effect of higher taxes, increasing compliance obligations and rising regulatory costs has become a growing concern. Industry representatives warn that if these financial pressures continue to escalate, the Netherlands risks creating a market environment where illegal operators gain a structural competitive advantage.
Balancing Fiscal Policy With Market Stability
The controversy surrounding the gambling tax increase highlights a broader policy challenge facing regulators across Europe: balancing fiscal objectives with the need to maintain a strong and competitive regulated gambling market.
Industry bodies warn that excessive financial pressure on licensed operators could ultimately shrink the legal market while strengthening illegal alternatives that operate outside regulatory safeguards.
For policymakers, the central challenge lies in ensuring that taxation and regulation are calibrated in a way that protects consumers while still allowing licensed operators to compete effectively with offshore providers targeting domestic players.
As the Dutch gambling market continues to evolve, the outcome of this policy debate could play a decisive role in determining whether the regulated sector remains attractive for both operators and players in the years ahead.