The French national gaming authority, l’Autorité Nationale des Jeux (ANJ), has released a groundbreaking report utilising a new proprietary algorithm to track player behaviour. The findings are stark: during the second half of 2025, approximately 60% of the industry’s Gross Gaming Revenue (GGR) was generated by “excessive” or at-risk gamblers.
The data indicates that out of the total €2.1bn generated across the French online market in H2 2025, nearly €1.2bn was tied to players exhibiting signs of gambling-related harm. This technological deep dive provides the most granular view yet of the market’s health, following the broader trends noted in the ANJ’s gambling market report 2025, which highlighted sustained revenue growth but rising social concerns.
Technical Insight: The ANJ’s Detection Algorithm
The ANJ developed this algorithm to standardise how “excessive gambling” is measured across different platforms, moving away from fragmented operator-reported data. The system monitors several key risk indicators:
- Intensity of Play: Tracking high-frequency wagering and extended session durations.
- Chasing Losses: Identifying patterns where deposits increase rapidly following a loss.
- Night-time Activity: Monitoring wagering between midnight and 6:00 AM, a key clinical indicator of addiction.
- Volatility of Deposits: Detecting sudden spikes in funding that do not align with a player’s historical average.
The regulator noted that while the total number of gamblers remained relatively stable, the concentration of revenue among a vulnerable minority has intensified. This data will likely serve as the evidentiary basis for the ANJ’s 2026 AML and fraud compliance plans, as financial instability in players often intersects with broader compliance risks.
Legislative Evolution: Shifting from Observation to Intervention
The revelation that more than half of the industry’s profit relies on at-risk consumers has placed immense pressure on the ANJ to move beyond advisory roles. The regulator has signalled that the era of “voluntary” operator restraint is ending.
The findings directly inform the recently announced ANJ’s action plans for excessive gambling reduction, which aim to force operators to implement more aggressive “soft caps” on deposits. Isabelle Falque-Pierrotin, Chair of the ANJ, stated that the current market structure is “unsustainable” if it continues to depend so heavily on individuals suffering from clinical harm.
Clinical vs. Criminal: Defining the Duty of Care
The ANJ’s algorithm has sparked a debate regarding the legal “Duty of Care” owed by operators. If an algorithm can identify a problem gambler with high accuracy, the regulator argues that the operator should have the same capability and the legal obligation to intervene.
Key concerns highlighted in the report include the following:
- Marketing Saturation: Excessive gamblers are often the most targeted by “retention” bonuses and VIP schemes.
- Cross-Product Contamination: Players who engage in sports betting and poker simultaneously show significantly higher risk scores.
- The “Safety Net” Failure: Current automated intervention messages are often ignored by high-intensity players, suggesting that human-led intervention or mandatory blocks may be required.
Regulatory Implications: What This Means for French Operators
For operators in the French jurisdiction, this data represents a major “compliance cliff”. The ANJ is expected to use this algorithmic model to audit individual operators. If an operator’s GGR profile shows a disproportionate reliance on at-risk players compared to the market average, they may face punitive measures or licence reviews.
Industry stakeholders should anticipate:
- Mandatory Risk Scoring: Operators may soon be required to integrate the ANJ’s risk-detection logic into their own backend systems.
- Reduced VIP Incentives: Stricter limits on bonuses for players identified as “high intensity”.
- Enhanced Reporting: A shift toward real-time data sharing with the ANJ to allow for “live” monitoring of market risk.
The ANJ’s move to weaponise data sets a new global benchmark for regulatory oversight. By proving that 60% of GGR is potentially problematic, the French regulator has effectively shifted the burden of proof onto the industry to demonstrate that they can operate profitably without exploiting the vulnerable.