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Macau Casino GGR Tipped for September Rebound After Soft August

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Altay
Altay Celikkaya
Content Manager
Updated:
Reading Time: 3 minutes

Macau’s casino market recorded a third consecutive year-on-year decline in August 2026, but analysts expect revenue growth to return in September on an easier comparison base. Gross gaming revenue reached MOP21.89 billion (US$2.71 billion), down 1.2% from August 2025. The result nevertheless represented an 8.1% improvement from July, as activity strengthened month on month even as the annual comparison remained negative.

Official figures from Macau’s Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau show that cumulative GGR for the first eight months reached MOP169.05 billion, 3.7% higher than in the same 2025 period.

Macau Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau logo displayed over a faded cityscape of Macau’s casino district.

Markets & Regions

Key Takeaways From Macau’s August GGR Performance

  • Macau recorded its third consecutive year-on-year GGR decline in August following five months of growth.

  • An 8.1% monthly rebound signalled improving activity after July’s World Cup-related slowdown.

  • Cumulative GGR remained 3.7% ahead of 2025, preserving positive full-year momentum.

  • September may return to annual growth on an easier comparison base, even if revenue declines from August.

Monthly Recovery Follows a Weak July

August improved materially on the 8.4% year-on-year decline in Macau casino GGR recorded in July, when revenue fell to MOP20.26 billion. That earlier result was the weakest monthly total of 2026 and reflected pressure on premium-mass and VIP play during the FIFA World Cup.

For B2B stakeholders, annual and sequential performance must be separated. Gross gaming revenue measures wagers retained after player payouts, before operating expenses. A monthly rebound can improve market momentum without translating into stronger operator earnings, particularly when gaming mix, hold rates and promotional costs move unfavourably.

World Cup Disruption Outlasts the Tournament

The World Cup ran from 11 June to 19 July and diverted some customer attention towards football betting. Seaport Research Partners found little evidence of the pent-up casino demand expected after the final. JP Morgan estimated that VIP revenue fell 5% year on year in August, while mass-market and slot revenue remained approximately flat.

Melco Resorts president Evan Winkler acknowledged the unusually pronounced disruption during the company’s second-quarter earnings call.

We were surprised that the impact probably was more significant this year than it has been in past years.

The uneven recovery is consistent with broader World Cup 2026 iGaming demand patterns, which showed that tournament participation and sporting performance did not reliably determine how gambling interest moved across markets.

Easier Comparison Supports September Forecasts

JP Morgan Securities forecasts September GGR of MOP19.64 billion, representing approximately 7% annual growth and 89% of the September 2019 level. Seaport is more optimistic, projecting MOP20.12 billion and a 10% year-on-year increase.

Both forecasts imply a sequential decline from August. Seaport expects average daily GGR of MOP671 million, 5.1% below August’s MOP706 million. September is typically a quieter month and remains exposed to storm-related disruption, but the annual comparison is favourable because a typhoon weighed on September 2025.

The third-quarter outlook remains restrained. JP Morgan expects Macau GGR to decline 1% year on year to MOP61.80 billion, while Seaport forecasts a 0.5% contraction. JP Morgan has retained its full-year estimate of MOP254.28 billion, implying 3% growth and keeping the market above the Macau government’s MOP236 billion budget assumption. That gap gives the market room to absorb near-term volatility while remaining ahead of the revenue level assumed for public finances.

Attention will turn to the October Golden Week holiday, one of Macau’s most important tourism periods. Its performance will provide operators and investors with a test of whether the summer weakness was temporary or indicates softer demand.