The National Council on Problem Gambling has strengthened its position on the consumer risks associated with prediction markets, saying the rapidly expanding products can expose users to harms similar to traditional gambling. In a statement published on 22 September, the US organisation called for stronger safeguards as prediction markets reach a wider and increasingly mainstream audience.
NCPG believes prediction markets can function like gambling regardless of their current legal classification.
The organisation is calling for self-exclusion tools, age verification, risk disclosures, and direct access to support.
NCPG says its position on consumer harm remains separate from questions over whether prediction markets should be legal.
The statement comes as US states and regulators continue to debate how to classify and supervise sports event contracts.
NCPG said the scale and speed of prediction-market growth has increased potential exposure to gambling-related harm, including among younger users.
The organisation remains neutral on whether prediction markets should be legal. However, it said a product’s legal classification should not determine whether consumer harm measures are necessary.
NCPG Board President Derek Longmeier said:
The harm is not theoretical, and we cannot wait to act.
The organisation identified responsible-engagement tools, self-exclusion, age verification, clear risk disclosures and direct access to assistance as minimum protections for businesses offering gambling or products that function similarly to gambling.
The position adds a consumer protection dimension to a wider regulatory debate already developing across the US. In September, Missouri took action against prediction-market operators including Kalshi, Polymarket and Robinhood over sports event contracts that the state considers unlicensed sports wagering.
NCPG also pointed to polling The Harris Poll conducted on its behalf earlier this year.
According to the organisation, 85% of Americans surveyed agreed that people can develop unhealthy or addictive behaviours linked to prediction-market platforms. Another 84% believed prediction markets should receive consumer protections similar to those applied to gambling.
Those findings support NCPG’s argument that harm-reduction measures should not depend solely on whether a platform is regulated as a gambling operator or financial exchange.
The classification issue remains particularly important for B2B businesses operating around sports, trading technology and event contracts. A recent Texas review of prediction markets examined whether sports-related contracts should fall under state gambling rules or remain within the federal derivatives framework.
Outside the US, regulators are also examining related issues. The European Securities and Markets Authority has raised concerns about market integrity and retail risks linked to prediction markets, including possible losses, insider trading and market manipulation.
The latest statement follows NCPG’s expansion into the financial trading sector earlier this year.
In May, NCPG announced that Kalshi would become the first member of its new Financial Services & Trading membership category. The agreement included a $2 million investment over two years to support NCPG’s Financial Trader Health and Safety Initiative.
The initiative focuses on education, research and consumer protections connected to emerging financial trading platforms and prediction markets.
NCPG has stressed that financial support or membership does not amount to endorsement of a company, its products or its regulatory position. In its latest statement, the organisation reiterated that members and donors do not control its research, advocacy, policy positions or public statements.
For prediction-market businesses and their B2B partners, the statement draws further attention to safeguards that may increasingly shape discussions around product design, market access and responsible participation, even as the underlying legal classification of event contracts remains disputed.
